Canada’s Energy Future Takes Center Stage in Federal Election

Energy Independence Emerges as Rare Point of Consensus Amid U.S. Tariff Threats

April 24, 2025

In a striking shift from previous Canadian electoral cycles, energy policy has moved to the forefront of the April 28 federal election campaign, with both leading candidates advocating for greater energy independence from the United States—a rare point of agreement in an otherwise polarized political landscape.

National Security Concerns Drive Energy Policy

Prime Minister Mark Carney of the Liberal Party and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre have both highlighted the urgent need for Canada to diversify its energy export markets beyond the United States, which currently receives approximately 90% of Canadian oil exports—about 4 million barrels per day.

“Our relationship with the United States has completely changed. So imports from the United States and the geography…of the pipelines is a national security problem for us,” Carney stated during the French-language debate.

This shift in rhetoric comes as U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has threatened tariffs on Canadian imports and made controversial comments about Canada, sparking anxieties about economic sovereignty in the world’s fourth-largest oil exporter.

Cross-Country Pipeline Projects Gain New Support

Both major candidates have proposed accelerating energy infrastructure projects, particularly east-west pipelines that would allow Canadian oil and gas to reach global markets without U.S. involvement—a concept that has traditionally faced opposition in regions like Quebec.

Carney has pledged to reduce federal approval times for major projects from five years to two, while Poilievre has gone further, promising a six-month approval process and an “energy corridor” to expedite pipeline and rail construction nationwide.

“I’m in favor of economic sovereignty and energy sovereignty, and that requires a pipeline across Canada,” Poilievre emphasized during the debate.

Public opinion appears to be shifting as well, with polling data showing increased support for cross-Canada pipeline infrastructure, a marked change from when the Energy East pipeline proposal was abandoned in 2017 amid regulatory challenges and environmental opposition.

 

Experts Urge Cautious Response to U.S. Threats

While political rhetoric has intensified, energy experts are advising a measured approach to potential U.S. tariffs on Canadian energy products.

Gary Mar, CEO of the Canada West Foundation and former Alberta trade representative in Washington, pointed to historical precedent: “President Richard Nixon imposed a 10 per cent tariff in 1971 and withdrew it after a few months because it caused so much pain for American consumers.”

Mar suggests that Canada should exercise patience, noting that “any tariffs on energy will be passed on to consumers in the United States.”

Other experts warn against imposing retaliatory tariffs on Canadian energy exports, with former Alberta cabinet minister Ted Morton comparing such a move to the controversial National Energy Program of the early 1980s that created deep regional divisions.

“The biggest loser in Trump’s new tariff war will be Ontario due to the integration of the auto sector between the U.S. and Canada,” Morton said, cautioning that using energy export tariffs to generate revenue that benefits central Canada could revive historical western alienation.

Climate Concerns Take Back Seat

The focus on energy security and independence represents a significant shift from the 2021 federal election when climate change topped voter concerns and there was broad consensus on transitioning to a green economy. According to recent polling, Canadian concerns about climate have declined since late 2023 as anxieties about inflation, housing costs, and energy security have grown.

This change is particularly notable for Carney, who has an extensive background as an international climate advocate, having served as UN Special Envoy on climate action and finance and co-chair of the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero.

One of Carney’s first actions as prime minister was repealing the consumer carbon levy—a tax introduced in 2019 that placed an added charge on consumers using fossil fuel products. The tax had become increasingly unpopular amid rising living costs, with Poilievre branding his rival as “Carbon Tax Carney.”

While Carney continues to advocate for making Canada “a world leading superpower in both clean and conventional energy,” his campaign has focused more on pragmatic approaches to energy development than on aggressive climate targets.

Poilievre, meanwhile, has proposed scrapping the industrial carbon tax entirely and significantly expanding oil and gas production, arguing that Canadian hydrocarbons could replace “dirty coal” in Asian markets.

Challenging Climate Commitments

As the election approaches, questions remain about how either candidate’s energy plans would align with Canada’s international climate commitments. The country has pledged to reduce carbon emissions by 40-45% by 2030 based on 2005 levels, but as of 2023, carbon output was only down 8.5%.

Yves-François Blanchet, leader of the Bloc Québécois, has accused both frontrunners of promoting “fairy tales” about clean oil and gas and being in “denial” about climate change.

The Insurance Bureau of Canada reported that in 2024, weather-related insured losses reached C$8.5 billion ($6.1 billion), triple the figure for 2023—a stark reminder of the escalating costs of climate impacts across the country.

Industry Welcomes Focus on Energy Development

The renewed focus on energy infrastructure and development has been welcomed in Alberta, which produces the bulk of Canada’s oil.

“I’ve not in my career seen a moment like this,” said Adam Legge, CEO of the Business Council of Alberta, noting the unusual consensus around accelerating energy projects.

Martha Hall Findlay, a former Suncor Energy executive who heads the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy, expressed relief at seeing federal parties recognizing the importance of economic growth alongside environmental considerations.

“The frustration of the last 10 years, among primarily people in the western, oil-and-gas producing parts of the country, has been palpable,” she observed.

The Path Forward

As Canadians prepare to vote on April 28, the question of how to balance energy security, economic growth, and climate commitments remains unresolved. Both leading candidates have seized on energy sovereignty as a rallying cry at a time of heightened tensions with the United States, but the long-term implications for Canada’s energy sector and climate goals are far from certain.

What is clear is that this election represents a pivotal moment for Canadian energy policy, with the outcome likely to shape the country’s approach to resource development, infrastructure investment, and international trade relationships for years to come.

---

Sources: Reuters, BBC, EnergyNow Media, IEA World Energy Outlook, Insurance Bureau of Canada